2019 has been a year of near misses. 269 instances of large and small conflicts involving 30 nations have been recorded, but fortuitously none has blown out of complete control. Many of the older conflicts, such as the Syrian Civil War, the Afghan War and the never ending wars of North Africa have smoldered, raged or re-ignited, without really going away. Newer ones have emerged, such as Turkey’s incursion into Northern Syria or the renewed US – Iran tensions. Near war scenarios have also taken place in the Indian sub-continent but have been fortunately contained – as yet. There has been no major conflagration, but as the year drew to a close, the Persian Gulf has erupted in what can be the first stage of open conflict between USA and Iran.
One of the reasons for the eruptions across the globe has been the policies of USA. The flip flop policies of the present regime have allowed Russia and China to exert growing influence in Europe, Asia and Africa which could lead to one salami slice too many and set the stage for future conflict between the USA, Russia and China. Its abrupt removal of troops from Syria enabled Turkey’s offensive there. Its impending withdrawal from Afghanistan has contributed to its instability and its’ abrogation of the US-Iran Nuclear Deal has led to the present conflict situation in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East.
Asia and Africa remain the troubled spots of the world with the Middle East and South Asia as the most volatile regions. It is from there that the tensions emanate and creep out towards the rest of the world.
No end game in Syria
The Syrian Civil War which has been raging since 2013 at the cost of over 200000 lives and displacement of over 2.5 million civilians is slowly coming to a close. The Syrian rebels had been pushed out of their stronghold at Idlib and Assad continued to retain his hold on power, supported by Russia. The IS too, had been pushed out of their last hide-out at Baghouz by the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Front supported by US air power. By the middle of the year, it seemed that this disturbed region would finally stabalise.
Then in October came a completely different turn of events. The US withdrew its troops precipitously from North Syria, claiming that the IS had been defeated. In the wake of their withdrawal, Turkish Armed forces attacked a 200 kilometer long swath of land along the Syrian Turkey border to evict the YPG – a Kurdish militia group who had done the bulk of the fighting against the IS and had settled in the area. Turkey’s aim was to ostensibly establish a 30 kilometer deep ‘safe zone’ along its border area and prevent the Kurdish militia from raising demands for an independent state of Kurdistan (which would include a large swath of Turkey’s border regions). The lightly armed YPG, rudely abandoned by the US, and were simply steam-rolled into submission. Turkey’s offensive, led by tanks and aircraft, killed over 400 and displaced over 250000 Kurds, drew international condemnation, but little else. The US and Russia helped broker a deal in which the Kurds agreed to withdraw from the area, enabling Turkey to create its ‘safe zone’ which would be jointly patrolled by Russian, Syrian and Turkish troops. In other words, Turkey got away with its offensive and the YPG – for all their efforts in the war against the IS were simply thrown under the bus.
The only saving grace to this was that in the midst of the action – the Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi was killed in his hideout near the Syrian border by a US raid. The killing of Baghdadi was a major psychological boost and gave the US a legitimate ground to call an end to the War against the IS and withdraw its troops from the area. Yet, even though the IS has been pushed out of its Caliphate and has lost its charismatic leader, it remains a potent force. Over 12000 IS fighter and over 30-40000 family members were held by the Kurdish militia in the area overrun by the Syrian offensive. Many of them were known to have escaped, and they could well form the nucleus of a similar organization, or join another affiliate – then the same cycle will repeat itself once again.
The Burning Persian Gulf
The Middle East has lived up to its reputation of being the most volatile region in the world. To add to the agony of Saudi-Iran tensions, the Yemen Civil War and Israel- Palestinian dispute, the USA decided to walk away from the US –Iran Nuclear Deal on flimsy and baseless grounds and imposed severe sanctions on Iran. An angry and resentful Iran – which had kept its part of the bargain in the deal – recommenced its nuclear program and began enriching uranium beyond the laid down 300 kilogram cap – bringing the nuclear specter back over the Middle East.
As US sanctions began to hurt, Iran lashed out at US interests in the Middle East and began striking its allies. In May, four Saudi oil tankers were attacked with rockets and missiles in the Persian Gulf. In June two others were set ablaze with limpet mines in the Straits of Hormuz – the critical artery through which half the world’s oil supply passes. Though Iran denied all involvement, this attack was its way of demonstrating that it could disrupt the world’s oil supply if pushed too far.
Things reached a passé in July when Iranian Republican Guards shot down a US RQ – 4 Global Hawk drone, claiming that it was overflying its territory. President Trump ordered a retaliatory air strike which would have killed hundreds and drastically escalated the situation. The strike was cancelled with just ten minutes to go, and instead a cyber-attack was launched on the missile and radar units of the Republican Guards which crippled these installations but caused no loss of life. It seemed that the region had pulled back from the brink with just inches to go and then on 27 Dec came under flashpoint. The Iranian sponsored militia – Kataib Hezbollah fired rockets at a US base in Kirkuk killing an American contractor and wounding four others. Two days later the US responded with a rocket attack on Kataib Hezbollah positions that killed 24 – an act which sparked widespread anti-US protests. A violent mob attacked the US Embassy in Baghdad barricading the staff and torching the front office. Although that attach petered out, it evoked memories of a similar attack on the US Embassy in Teheran in 1979 which kept 52 Americans as hostage for over a year. In retaliation the US assassinated General Qassem Suleimani, the head of their famed Quds Force who was suspected to be the architect behind the attacks. This action coming just 72 hours in the New Year was an act of war and triggered a wave of rocket and missile attacks at US bases in Ain al Assad and Erbil. The US –Iran conflict now seems to have entered a vicious retaliatory and escalatory cycle with neither side willing to back down. The New Year does not bode well for the Persian Gulf and we can only hope that cooler heads prevail and that it does not erupt into all-out war.
Yet, the Middle East burns in more ways than one. The civil war in Yemen saw a period of lull with the ‘Stockholm Agreement’ ceasefire holding out for most of last year. But this year saw a renewal of attacks by the Houthi rebels (supported by Iran) on Saudi territory. Saudi oil pipelines were targeted and one of their missiles even reached Riyadh. In September, as tensions in the Persian Gulf escalated, a major drone and missile strike was launched the Oil processing plants of Abqaiq and Khurais which set ablaze the world’s largest plant which processed half of Saudi’s light sweet crude. Around 12- 15 drones and 5-6 cruise missiles slammed into the plant at around 4 in the morning of 14 September, crippling it and causing $6 Billion worth of damage. The strikes were presumably launched by Houthi rebels, but all indicators pointed to Iran, which had used its proxies to launch the strike and demonstrate its capabilities.
So far these actions have not led to all-out war, but as resentment spreads in Iran, its leaders may just lash out at US interests and take one action too many. It could also use its proxies – the Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis for further attacks on Israel or Saudi. Any one of these actions could send the situation spiraling out of control and set the Persian Gulf – and the world economy aflame.
The Af –Pak Region
Like the Middle East, Afghanistan too has come dangerously close to the brink. The Taliban have tightened their grip on the country after their summer offensive in April and now control half the country including the major towns of Konduz, Ghazni, Badakhstan, Takhan and Faryab. This year has been a bad one for Afghanistan, with over 40,000 killed – the highest casualty toll since the US invasion in 2001. As the Taliban consolidate their hold, the Afghan Security Forces and the meager complement of 13000 US troops have been unable to stave their onslaught.
The Taliban have rebuffed all offers of a ceasefire and refused to talk to the Afghan government, calling it ‘illegitimate’. Instead they entered directly in talks with the US through their envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and had almost signed a ‘Peace Deal’ by which the US was to withdraw 4000 troops by the end of the year and move out the remainder on the coming year. That deal virtually handed over Afghanistan to the Taliban on a platter and was fortunately scuttled at the last moment, after a Taliban attack killed a US soldier. Yet, it is a temporary reprieve. President Trump has made it clear that he wants to get out of Afghanistan and talks with the Taliban have recommenced. Deal or no Deal, the US would be withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan and the first complement of around 4000 troops could leave early next year. That would weaken the Afghan Forces even more and leave them open to a renewed Taliban offensive which is very likely in the coming Spring.
The re-election of President Ghani is perhaps the only bright spot in the bleak scenario. He can provide some kind of political continuity and, if supported, could engage the Taliban in a ‘Afghan led and Afghan owned” peace accord. But, as of now, the Taliban hold all the cards. The stage is being set for the Taliban to storm back into power sometime next year. That would bring Pakistan back into pre-eminence and weaken Indian influence in Afghanistan. The return of the Taliban could also lead to an intensification of actions in Kashmir and the Indian hinterland. The auguries are not too good and India needs to recalibrate its policies to cater for it.
US-China Tensions
As the US-China trade war raged on for most of the year, pushing the world economy in doldrums, other tensions also surfaced, especially in the China Seas. China has continued its claims on the disputed waters of the South and the East China Sea building ports, bases and airfields in the disputed reefs and islands of the Seas. In a particularly symbolic move, it launched its second aircraft carrier, the ‘Shamdong’ from a base in the South China Sea, emphasizing its claims there.
To underline the ‘freedom of navigation’ clause, US warships have repeatedly sailed near the disputed islands, with combat ships of the Seventh Fleet sailing past Mischief Reef and Paracel Islands in November. The intensification of pro-democracy protests in Taiwan and Hong Kong has also added fuel to the fire, with China accusing USA of ‘adding new uncertainties’ there. China has been intensifying its military exercises in the area to prepare for ‘unexpected confrontations’ in the waters, and the US has been recalibrating its strategies to counter a ‘near –peer’ in the Indo-Pacific.
It is unlikely that US-China confrontation will go beyond this, but both sides will gradually push the envelope. Both see each other as rivals and potential adversaries and should one of the games of ‘I Dare’ get out of hand, it could churn the troubled waters of the China Seas even further.
To complicate the situation, North Korea has gone back to its old ways after the talks with USA have stalled. In spite of President Trump’s much publicized visit to North Korea, little has been done on ground by either side. North Korea demands a lifting of sanctions and reduction of USA’s military footprint in the Peninsula. The US insists on more ‘scaling down’ before it offers the same. Korea has resumed its belligerence and since May conducted 13 short range missile tests, and two engine tests for a long range missile (from a testing facility they claimed they had dismantled) which Kim promised as a ‘Christmas Present’ for Trump. The hope that existed at the beginning of the year, of the North returning to the mainstream has dissipated and perhaps 2020 will just see a return to the past.
Fires in the Sub-Continent
Closer home, the Indian sub-continent has seen tensions at their highest point since the Kargil War. A vicious suicide attack killed 40 CRPF troopers in Pulwama in early February. In retaliation, Indian Mirages struck a Jaish-e Mohammed training facility in Balakot in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province deep in Pakistan. The jury is still out as to the effect of the strike which range from ‘hundreds of terrorists’ from the Indians, to just a ‘few trees and a crow’ as claimed by Pakistan. The actual figure would be somewhere in between, but the casualty figure does not matter. The strike was indicative of the fact that the LOC and IB were no longer inviolable and that the war could be taken across to be fought on their turf. This may act as deterrence but it has also significantly raised the threshold and reduced the space for maneuver in case of future attacks.
The Pakistani response came the very next day. Pakistani fighters attacked targets in India and were engaged by Indian jets, which led to one Indian MIG 21 and a Pakistan F-16 being shot down (Pakistan though, resolutely denies the loss of a fighter and claims to have shot down two Indian aircraft). After a tense two day standoff, the captured Indian pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan was returned to India and both sides claimed victory.
The air action was the first aerial engagement between the two Air Forces since the shooting down of a PAF Atlantique aircraft over the Rann of Kutch in 1999. It marked a dangerous escalation in tensions. Even more dangerous was the rhetoric and the nuclear threats that emanated from both sides. As tensions rise, the cease fire along the LOC has broken down completely. 3700 ceasefire violations have been recorded along the 778 km long LOC and even heavy caliber Artillery and Anti-tank missiles are used virtually on a daily basis. This is the highest since 2003, and this atmosphere of open hostility will make any return to normal relations even more difficult.
With the abrogation of Article 370, Pakistan will now want to draw world attention to Kashmir. We are at a very delicate stage in Kashmir. Once the curbs that have been imposed are removed, the bottled tensions and emotions will be released and perhaps the valley may see an upsurge of protest. Pakistan could well exploit the summer of discontent through calibrated terrorist strikes, cross-border attacks, or even a short war (with accompanying nuclear rhetoric) to draw world attention to the issue. 2020 could well be the year of decision and will determine how fully Kashmir is integrated with the rest of the Union, or otherwise. It is important now to keep the rhetoric and emotions under check and deal with the issue in a balanced and nuanced manner.
It is fortunate that the LAC has remained incident free all year. Though relations with China have improved on the trade and cultural front, it will continue to support Pakistan, especially in Kashmir. It has even tried to raise the issue in UNSC. With their stakes in Pak Occupied Kashmir, they have a vested interest in the issue, and their behind-the scenes support could just egg Pakistan to push it across the brink.
Other Conflicts
Besides the major conflicts that have erupted – but have been fortunately curbed – other conflicts continue to rage. In the Sahel region of North Africa – the arid region south of the Sahara desert- jihadi groups such as Jamaah Nusrat al Islam, the Islamic State in Greater Sahel and Boko Haram continue to wage attacks in Somalia, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Nigeria. More terrorist related incidents and greater casualties have been recorded there than ever before. It is an indicator that though the Islamic State may have been pushed out of its ‘Emirate’, its affiliates continue to thrive and could establish bases in Africa from where they pursue their vicious ideology. Elsewhere in the world, religious violence is increasing as the attacks on the mosques in Christchurch and churches in Sri Lanka denote. Lone wolf attacks also continue in London, Europe, Australia and USA and indicate that the War against Terror is by no means over.
Other parallel conflicts are also underway. The US-China Trade War which has stalled the world’s economy now seems to be winding down. But we are losing an even more vital war. In the war against Climate Change, there has been no progress. The Time ‘Person of the Year’ , Greta Thunberg, has thundered about the Earth being stolen, and though the dangers are real, concrete measures to halt global warming – the greatest threat to mankind- are nowhere in the offing.
The saving grace of 2019 has been that no major war has erupted (barring the Turkish incursion into Syria), though many have come close to the brink. But India and Pakistan, the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula are potential flashpoints that can erupt at any time. The Iran –US conflict too has escalated dramatically in the last week of the year and threatens to go out of control. We can only hope that 2020 dampens the embers and douses the flames of on-going conflicts and prevent newer ones from emerging.
Ajay Singh
Ajay Singh is a military analyst and strategic thinker who is the author of four books and over 170 articles.